Predictions or a lot of crystal balls

There are just seven days until Drupa opens its doors and the accuracy of numerous predictions about what will be seen at the show will become all too clear. For this show, more than any previous Drupa, has collected predictions from all quarters. It feels as if even Gypsy Rose Lee has peered into her crystal ball. Will this Drupa be about inkjet, about AI, automation, sustainability? One or all of these according to the background and interests of the writer or commentator previewing the show. Many will be consultants, perhaps having signed a Non Disclosure Agreement, perhaps also delivering market research and background commentary about the product about to be launched. There may be vested interests at play.

Many of the predictions will be quickly forgotten, lasting as long as early morning mist on a summer’s day.  Some will be true – the sheer number of word and predictions means that some must prove accurate – others will be wildly off. What they have in common is that all will be about the technology, the performance of the hardware and software that engineers have spent months and years focused on. The potential of these technologies leads to comments about market trends, as if major markets are led only by the developments in production technology.  Only very rarely will the technology itself be the answer to a problem rather than an answer looking for a non-existent problem to solve.

And because technology is by necessity developed in isolation, the impact of other current developments is rarely considered. Thus the arrival of digital colour printing was swiftly followed by computer to plate and improvements in litho presses resulting in a much diminished opportunity and reducing the need to adopt the replacement technology. This needs to be remembered by all. Only very rarely has one new technology completely replaced an existing technology. Visitors to Drupa next week need to remember this – no matter what the soothsayers predict.