The industry figures examined this issue are split between two of the key consumables and two of the main users of print. Paper provides an instant measure of how much is being printed and by grade, what is being printed. Details about inks provide indications about which markets are the biggest for print and the relative performance of different countries.
The paper and board production data comes from Cepi and is measured across the 26 countries that are members of the association. It does not measure consumption across these countries. This can be influenced by imports from outside Europe.
The 2022 figures relative to 2021 are also distorted to some effected by industrial action in Finland at the start of last year and by comparison to what had been a highly productive year which had left stocks high as merchants and printers ditched just in time for just in case purchasing. This came ahead of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on economic activity. As demand dropped, so too has production and many mills are starting seasonal shutdowns earlier than normal.
The almost 10% decline in newsprint production can be no surprise to anyone as both newsprint production and newspaper print production is being closed down. At the moment it seems the rate of production loss is not in step with decline in circulation and demand. Further reorganisation can be expected.
More surprising perhaps are the declines in the production of packaging grades, averaging between 4-5%. Some of this will be due to slowing production in response to the build up of stocks and to disruption caused by strikes and energy cost increases.
In the adjacent label stock market a first half that was afflicted by the Finnish strike was followed by a bounceback in Q3 and a decline of 24% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. This is considered an aberration to correct the swings of the previous months, but also by economic uncertainty, rising costs and a reluctance to expend more cash than is necessary. As with boards, converters are using up stocks on hand before placing new orders.
The drop in corrugated production is in addition a response too to impending recession on the one hand and to a return to in store shopping on the other, leading to a decline in the packaging needed for door drop deliveries. The drop in folding carton production is more related to industrial action. Demand for carton boards was strong to the extent that carton converters struggled to source material for the best part of the year and leading many to build stocks on site. As there is greater visibility of supply, stock holding is less necessary than before leading companies to rely on what is in the warehouse.
On the printing side, the decline in SC papers used for gravure and for high speed web offset production is no surprise and reflects the drop in demand for very long run mail order catalogues and high volume retail flyer production. Legislation in some countries is exacerbating the problem by questioning the use of door drops and unaddressed direct mail. Gravure print capacity is being cut, notably by Prinovis, as the requirements for newspaper supplements drops in relation to newspaper circulations fall. Long run and multi-section magazine circulations are also falling with a consequential impact on capacity for these types of paper.
Declining production of coated woodfree and uncoated woodfree papers is arguably more closely related to capacity corrections from the disruption caused by the recent pandemic. Certainly ink consumption figures from Eupia and reflecting the data from member federations do not tie in directly to movements in production of paper. An explanation is that printing inks are used on packaging films, large format displays and textiles as well as on paper. Indeed packaging inks account for around two thirds of the market, around 530,000 tonnes a year, compared to the 250,000tpa of publication inks.
The index shows that Turkey’s demand for printing ink is continuing to rise rapidly. Turkey is now the third largest market for printing ink in Europe behind Italy and Germany but ahead of France and the UK which continue to be approximately the same size and ahead of Poland, Spain and Russia. The value of the Russian market fell 35% last year, due to the impact to its economy through boycotts related to Ukraine. Turkey’s growth may be related to its ability to trade with Russia.
Turning the coin from substrate production to statistics and trends of publishing as a major customer for print, the shrinkage in the UK’s major magazine markets is clear. According to the ABC, circulations for magazines in the UK fell 11% in 2022. This still amounted to 20.9 million print or digital copies compared to 24.3 million in 2021. Just 31 of the 220 consumer magazine titles record their figures through ABC experienced a growth in sales, This leaves many business titles unrecorded in the data. These have proved more likely to transition to digital only publication, driven by a combination of falling revenues and increasing costs, postage charges in particular. For consumer titles, digital publication remains a minority sport with just 3.1 million digital issues sold.
Of our sample of marquee magazine titles, only one increased circulation in 2022 and only one is trending above the 2016 level at the point that the index started. The UK’s largest weekly is TV Choice, with sales of 972,869 a week while member magazines are the winners currently. Women’s titles are showing double digital falls across the board. Only Hello managed a rise, that of a meagre 1%. The big titles are now membership publications: the National Trust prints 2.7 million copies for its members; English Heritage produces 488,600 magazines for the membership; the RSPB Magazine has 586,800 copies in 2022, Caravan and Motorhome Club runs to 381,900 copies and Camping and Caravanning to 340,000 or supermarket publications: Tesco produces 1.5 million copies of its magazine, Waitrose 684,100 and Ocado Life 201,100.
In the world of books, UK publishers have an increasingly global footprint and figures from the Publishers’ Association do not relate only to this country, Nor indeed is the definition of what a publisher does confined to printed pages. Thus while the Publishers’ Association celebrates a record year in terms of sales, the increase has come from exports not the UK market. The 4% rise to £6.9 billion in revenue hides a small decline in income from the home market to £2.7 million and an 8% increase in the export market to £4.1 billion.
In consumer publishing the PA reports modest overall growth with a 4% fall in the domestic sales as the waves from the pandemic continue to keep the market unsettled. This year the association has reported stronger book sales saying that a book is considered an affordable treat during the cost of living crisis while a meal out or trip to the theatre is not. Even in 2022, fiction titles were faring well with revenue rising 9% to £797 million. Non fiction titles slipped 2% to £1 billion, while children’s titles rose 1% to £429 million. Digital publication, including audio books, account for 20% of the consumer books sector with sales of £423 million compared to print sales of £1.8 billion.
In the consumer market “print remains king overall with increases of sales for this format driven by the export market”.
The education sector is continuing to climb back after the devastation of the Covid years, though sales dropped 2% in the UK. This equates to a 4% fall for printed books compared to a 27% increase from the export market for printed books.
The academic market is one where publishers experienced both export and domestic growth. It is also a market which has transitioned to digital publishing more than any other. Journals account for around two-thirds of the sector’s sales of £3.5 billion, £1 billion from the UK and the remainder from export. But only £309 million of revenue for publishers of academic journals comes from printed versions. Print accounts for £688 million of the £1.2 billion the printed books bring in, which is slightly more than comes in from digital publication. This reflects changes in the way university students are taught. “The stronger growth in digital formats was in line with the hybrid teaching that was taking place in many universities and the changing demands of students,” says Katie Thorn, chair of the higher and further education publishers council and VP global sales and marketing of Macmillan Learning.
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