Recovery for print UK stumbles says BPIF survey

Business slipped in the first three months of this year, but expectations for the second three months are firm.

The UK printing industry stumbled in the first three months of the year as output and sales declined in the face of increased economic uncertainty.

Yet, in contrast to the recent Bellwether report from the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising which blamed the uncertainty created by the forthcoming EU Referendum, printers have not noted any adverse effect.

BPIF chief executive Charles Jarrold says: “We will be separately reporting o our member research on the EU referendum; Printing Outlook does not suggest that the trade has yet been affected. However, it is certainly on the minds of our members and it is safe to say that opinions are varied.”

Experiences of trade in the first quarter have been just as varied. The result was an overall fall in expectations, yet a continuing rise on capacity utilisation. For 49% output levels continued as at the end of 2015, 26% reported a fall with 25% reporting a rise. There was a fall in orders, resulting in the largest discrepancy between expectations and experience for three years.

However, there is belief that business will bounce back in this quarter. Half expect business to improve in this quarter, with 38% predicting it to be the same, returning to the levels in the last six months of last year.

“Confidence in the industry is precarious, liable to fluctuate as it is influenced by uncertainties in the industry and the economic environment,” the Printing Outlook survey reports. This uncertainty is reflected in the continuing issues of concern: aggressive pricing, insufficient profits, skills shortages, late payment and a new entry of low productivity. The latter is raised as a concern by 25%, perhaps due to general reports about productivity in the UK economy, perhaps due to suppliers promoting ways to improve productivity.

Some of the poor performance can be attributed to an earlier than normal Easter leading to delays in orders and the holiday break.

Jarrold notes: “There have been a few additional concerns this year as companies negotiate the national living wage, pension auto-enrolment and look at the incoming apprenticeship levy. The high profile administration of Polestar will also impact some companies as may uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum.”